· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Savoia vs Scafatese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Savoia and 2.14 for Scafatese, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Scafatese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Scafatese win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Savoia home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Scafatese away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Scafatese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Savoia and 2.14 for Scafatese, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.4%
Recent form
Savoia
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cavese · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Casarano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Foggia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Team Altamura · 2-0 (W)
Scafatese
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cosenza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casertana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Campobasso FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Championship Round table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Folgore Caratese | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Treviso | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Desenzano Calvina | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ostia Mare | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 1 | Scafatese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Barletta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Savoia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Scafatese win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.