· Analysis updated 03:06 UTC
SC Braga vs São João Ver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.03 for São João Ver, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Braga home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
São João Ver away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Braga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for SC Braga and 1.03 for São João Ver, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–011.8%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
SC Braga
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
São João Ver
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Florgrade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.