· Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for SC Covilha and 1.05 for Vitória de Sernache, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives SC Covilha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SC Covilha win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Covilha home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitória de Sernache away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Covilha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for SC Covilha and 1.05 for Vitória de Sernache, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
SC Covilha
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-0 (D)
Vitória de Sernache
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caldas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Covilha win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.