Europa-Park Stadion · Referee Richard Hempel, Germany · Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.97 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives SC Freiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Freiburg win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Freiburg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Freiburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.97 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 48.9% vs market 39.7%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 39.7% | 48.9% | 2.04 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 76.2% | 1.31 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.1% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.6% | 23.7% | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.3% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 45.1% | 44.7% | 2.24 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 60.3% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SC Freiburg
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-0 (W)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Freiburg win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.