· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
SC Freiburg vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.08 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives SC Freiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Freiburg win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Freiburg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Freiburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.08 for Crystal Palace, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
SC Freiburg
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 3-0 Crystal Palace (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Freiburg win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.