Europa-Park-Stadion · Referee Martin Petersen · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.87 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives SC Freiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Freiburg win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Freiburg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Schalke 04 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 52.7% vs market 41.0%, edge +11.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 41.0% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +11.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 43.1% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.1% | 19.3% | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.2% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.7% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.0% | 80.6% | 1.24 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 59.0% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -11.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SC Freiburg
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-0 (W)
FC Schalke 04
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2023-04-23T13:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-30T16:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2021-04-17T13:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2020-12-16T17:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2020-06-27T13:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-21T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 2-2 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2019-02-16T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 0-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2018-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 1-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2018-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 0-2 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2017-11-04T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 0-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Freiburg win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.