SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.00 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 2.00 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives SC Freiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

SC Freiburg win

72.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

4.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SC Freiburg home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

SC Freiburg win72%

Draw13%

VfL Wolfsburg win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals92%

Over 3.5 goals83%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

3–15.3%
3–25.3%
4–15.3%
4–25.3%
5–14.2%

Recent form

SC Freiburg

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-0 (W)

VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T17:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2025-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 4-3 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2025-04-26T13:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2024-12-13T19:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 3-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2024-04-27T13:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2023-12-09T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2023-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 2-3 VfL Wolfsburg (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 2-0 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2023-01-21T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 0-6 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2022-03-12T14:30:00.000Z · SC Freiburg 3-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SC Freiburg win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.