SC Freital vs Auerbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for SC Freital and 2.15 for Auerbach, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Auerbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Auerbach win

48.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SC Freital home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auerbach away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auerbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for SC Freital and 2.15 for Auerbach, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SC Freital win31%

Draw21%

Auerbach win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–17.8%
2–27.1%
2–16.6%
1–36.0%

Recent form

SC Freital

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weissenfels · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Krieschow · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Empor Glauchau · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Einheit Wernigerode · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Auerbach · 2-2 (D)

Auerbach

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Einheit Rudolstadt · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eilenburg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freital · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dresden II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Budissa Bautzen · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ZFC Meuselwitz	9	7	2	0	13	23
2	Auerbach	9	6	2	1	13	20
3	Germania Halberstadt	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	VfL Halle	9	6	0	3	4	18
5	Eilenburg	9	5	1	3	12	16
6	Dresden II	9	3	5	1	7	14
7	Plauen	9	3	4	2	4	13
8	SC Freital	9	3	4	2	2	13
9	Weissenfels	9	4	0	5	-2	12
10	Union Sandersdorf	9	3	1	5	2	10
11	Empor Glauchau	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Budissa Bautzen	9	2	3	4	-7	9
13	Einheit Wernigerode	9	1	5	3	-9	8
14	Krieschow	9	2	2	5	-12	8
15	Einheit Rudolstadt	9	0	3	6	-18	3
16	FC Frankfurt	9	1	0	8	-22	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Auerbach win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.