Home Deluxe Arena · Referee Max Burda, Germany · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.88 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives SC Freiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Freiburg win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Paderborn 07 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freiburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.6%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.2%
Recent form
SC Paderborn 07
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 0-1 (L)
SC Freiburg
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-01T17:00:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 3-1 SC Freiburg (DFB Pokal)
- 2020-01-25T14:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 2-0 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2019-08-24T13:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 1-3 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2016-04-29T16:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 1-2 SC Freiburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2015-11-22T12:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 1-4 SC Freiburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2015-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 2-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2014-12-06T14:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 1-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Freiburg win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.