· Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
SC Sand W vs SGS Essen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for SC Sand W and 1.98 for SGS Essen W, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives SGS Essen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SGS Essen W win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Sand W home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGS Essen W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for SC Sand W and 1.98 for SGS Essen W, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.8%
Recent form
SC Sand W
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha Berlin W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carl Zeiss Jena W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen W · 0-0 (D)
SGS Essen W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoria Berlin W | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | SGS Essen W | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 23 |
| 3 | Hertha Berlin W | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Bochum W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 5 | Meppen W | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Ingolstadt W | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Carl Zeiss Jena W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Borussia Monchengladbach W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Andernach W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | SC Sand W | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II W | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim II W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 5 |
| 13 | Turbine Potsdam W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 14 | FC Koln II W | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SGS Essen W win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.