SC St. Tönis vs Holzheimer SG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.32 expected goals for SC St. Tönis and 1.04 for Holzheimer SG, a combined total of 4.36. That distribution gives SC St. Tönis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SC St. Tönis win

80.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.32 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SC St. Tönis home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holzheimer SG away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC St. Tönis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 11% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.32 goals for SC St. Tönis and 1.04 for Holzheimer SG, a combined 4.36 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SC St. Tönis win81%

Draw11%

Holzheimer SG win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

3–18.1%
3–07.8%
2–17.3%
2–07.0%
4–16.7%

Recent form

SC St. Tönis

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Dingden · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Schonnebeck · 1-3 (L)

Holzheimer SG

2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC St. Tönis · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Büderich · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	11	9	2	0	27	29
2	SSVg Velbert	11	9	0	2	14	27
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	6	3	2	12	21
4	SF Baumberg	11	5	4	2	3	19
5	Monheim	11	5	3	3	7	18
6	SC St. Tönis	11	5	3	3	5	18
7	Sonsbeck	11	4	5	2	4	17
8	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	11	5	2	4	0	17
9	BW Dingden	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Germania Ratingen	11	3	6	2	1	15
11	Solingen-Wald	11	5	0	6	-5	15
12	KFC Uerdingen 05	11	4	2	5	8	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	11	4	2	5	5	14
14	Scherpenberg	11	3	2	6	-10	11
15	Büderich	11	1	4	6	-17	7
16	Meerbusch	11	1	3	7	-14	6
17	SW Essen	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	Holzheimer SG	11	1	1	9	-25	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SC St. Tönis win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.