SC St. Tönis vs SF Baumberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for SC St. Tönis and 1.58 for SF Baumberg, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives SC St. Tönis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

SC St. Tönis win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SC St. Tönis home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC St. Tönis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for SC St. Tönis and 1.58 for SF Baumberg, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SC St. Tönis win51%

Draw21%

SF Baumberg win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.8%
1–18.1%
2–26.9%
1–26.4%
3–16.3%

Recent form

SC St. Tönis

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Dingden · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Schonnebeck · 1-3 (L)

SF Baumberg

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T13:30:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 0-0 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-11-16T13:30:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 3-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-02-23T14:00:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 6-0 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2024-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 2-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 0-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2023-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 2-5 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2023-02-26T14:00:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 0-3 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2022-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · SC St. Tönis 1-1 SF Baumberg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	11	9	2	0	27	29
2	SSVg Velbert	10	8	0	2	11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	6	3	2	12	21
4	Monheim	11	5	3	3	7	18
5	SC St. Tönis	11	5	3	3	5	18
6	Sonsbeck	10	4	4	2	4	16
7	SF Baumberg	10	4	4	2	2	16
8	BW Dingden	10	5	1	4	0	16
9	Solingen-Wald	10	5	0	5	-4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	11	4	2	5	8	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	3	5	2	1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	4	1	5	5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Büderich	10	1	4	5	-14	7
16	SW Essen	11	1	3	7	-14	6
17	Meerbusch	10	1	2	7	-14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	1	1	8	-22	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SC St. Tönis win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.