· Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
SC Torrevieja vs Ontinyent 1931 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for SC Torrevieja and 1.55 for Ontinyent 1931, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Ontinyent 1931 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Torrevieja home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ontinyent 1931 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ontinyent 1931 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for SC Torrevieja and 1.55 for Ontinyent 1931, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
SC Torrevieja
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Roda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Acero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Vall de Uxó · 0-2 (L)
Ontinyent 1931
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buñol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Levante II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Levante II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Torrent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Eldense B | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Crevillente | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Roda | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Acero | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Saguntino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | SC Torrevieja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Ontinyent 1931 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Jove Español | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Atzeneta | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Buñol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Torrellano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Soneja | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Utiel | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.