· Analysis updated 16:53 UTC
SC Villa vs Blacks Power Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for SC Villa and 0.67 for Blacks Power, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives SC Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SC Villa win
75.7% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blacks Power away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for SC Villa and 0.67 for Blacks Power, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 45%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 3–010.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.5%
Recent form
SC Villa
Blacks Power
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbarara City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BUL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maroons · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 2 | NEC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | BUL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | UPDF | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Maroons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Police | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Express | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Villa win, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.