Schalke 04 II vs Borussia M'gladbach II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Schalke 04 II and 2.02 for Borussia M'gladbach II, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Borussia M'gladbach II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 2.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Schalke 04 II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia M'gladbach II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia M'gladbach II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Schalke 04 II and 2.02 for Borussia M'gladbach II, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Schalke 04 II win35%

Draw21%

Borussia M'gladbach II win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.1%
1–18.0%
2–27.2%
2–17.2%
1–35.5%

Recent form

Schalke 04 II

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Gutersloh · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund II · 1-3 (L)

Borussia M'gladbach II

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	10	1	1	21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	8	4	0	13	28
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	7	2	3	13	23
4	FC Gutersloh	12	7	2	3	8	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	5	4	3	6	19
6	Bonner SC	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Schalke 04 II	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	12	5	2	5	-3	17
9	Bergisch Gladbach	12	5	1	6	-7	16
10	Hilden	12	4	3	5	-6	15
11	Köln II	11	4	2	5	0	14
12	Bochum II	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	3	4	5	-4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	12	3	3	6	-5	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	12	2	3	7	-6	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	1	3	8	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.