· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Schöningen vs Phönix Lübeck Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Schöningen and 2.28 for Phönix Lübeck, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Phönix Lübeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Phönix Lübeck win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schöningen home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Phönix Lübeck away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phönix Lübeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 26% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Schöningen and 2.28 for Phönix Lübeck, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–15.9%
Recent form
Schöningen
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HSC Hannover · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Emden · 0-5 (L)
Phönix Lübeck
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Emden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 28 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | St. Pauli II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 17 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Phönix Lübeck win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.