Schöningen vs VfB Oldenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Schöningen and 2.18 for VfB Oldenburg, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives VfB Oldenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

VfB Oldenburg win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 2.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Schöningen home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Oldenburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Oldenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 21% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Schöningen and 2.18 for VfB Oldenburg, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Schöningen win27%

Draw21%

VfB Oldenburg win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–28.9%
1–18.2%
2–26.8%
1–36.5%
2–16.3%

Recent form

Schöningen

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HSC Hannover · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Emden · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen II · 1-0 (W)

VfB Oldenburg

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bremer SV · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 II · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 7-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	11	1	2	29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	9	3	2	14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	9	1	4	22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	9	1	3	21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	8	3	2	24	27
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Kickers Emden	14	5	4	5	-4	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	4	5	5	-8	17
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	3	4	5	-7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	13	4	1	8	-9	13
14	SSV Jeddeloh	14	4	1	9	-14	13
15	Werder Bremen II	13	3	3	7	-5	12
16	Todesfelde	14	3	3	8	-21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	3	1	9	-5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	2	2	9	-17	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is VfB Oldenburg win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.