Schonnebeck vs SC St. Tönis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Schonnebeck and 1.83 for SC St. Tönis, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Schonnebeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Schonnebeck win

59.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.88 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Schonnebeck home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC St. Tönis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schonnebeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 17% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Schonnebeck and 1.83 for SC St. Tönis, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Schonnebeck win60%

Draw17%

SC St. Tönis win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals69%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–16.9%
3–16.6%
2–26.3%
3–26.0%
1–14.8%

Recent form

Schonnebeck

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SW Essen · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scherpenberg · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Baumberg · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Holzheimer SG · 3-0 (W)

SC St. Tönis

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Dingden · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Schonnebeck · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	11	9	2	0	27	29
2	SSVg Velbert	11	9	0	2	14	27
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	6	3	2	12	21
4	SF Baumberg	11	5	4	2	3	19
5	Monheim	11	5	3	3	7	18
6	SC St. Tönis	11	5	3	3	5	18
7	Sonsbeck	11	4	5	2	4	17
8	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	11	5	2	4	0	17
9	BW Dingden	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Germania Ratingen	11	3	6	2	1	15
11	Solingen-Wald	11	5	0	6	-5	15
12	KFC Uerdingen 05	11	4	2	5	8	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	11	4	2	5	5	14
14	Scherpenberg	11	3	2	6	-10	11
15	Büderich	11	1	4	6	-17	7
16	Meerbusch	11	1	3	7	-14	6
17	SW Essen	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	Holzheimer SG	11	1	1	9	-25	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Schonnebeck win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.