· Analysis updated 10:40 UTC
Schötz vs Muri-Gümligen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Schötz and 1.11 for Muri-Gümligen, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Schötz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Schötz win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schötz home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Muri-Gümligen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schötz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Schötz and 1.11 for Muri-Gümligen, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Schötz
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muttenz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bassecourt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun II · 5-1 (W)
Muri-Gümligen
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Bassecourt | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Wohlen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schötz win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.