· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden vs Germania Egestorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden and 1.09 for Germania Egestorf, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Schwarz-Weiß Rehden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win
72.0% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Germania Egestorf away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.4%
- 1–16.5%
Recent form
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Verden 04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vorsfelde · 3-0 (W)
Germania Egestorf
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bersenbrück · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 1-8 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 3-1 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2025-12-07T13:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 1-1 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2025-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 1-3 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2025-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 0-0 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2024-09-07T12:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 2-1 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2024-03-23T13:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 0-1 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2023-09-30T12:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 2-1 Germania Egestorf (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Wilhelmshaven | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Heeslinger SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Spelle-Venhaus | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Borussia Hildesheim | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Verden 04 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Nordhorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -20 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.