· Analysis updated 17:45 UTC
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden vs Verden 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden and 1.15 for Verden 04, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Schwarz-Weiß Rehden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Verden 04 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schwarz-Weiß Rehden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden and 1.15 for Verden 04, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Verden 04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vorsfelde · 3-0 (W)
Verden 04
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Heeslinger SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wilhelmshaven · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-29T16:30:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 1-0 Verden 04 (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2026-04-24T18:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 0-0 Verden 04 (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 4-4 Verden 04 (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2024-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 3-0 Verden 04 (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Heeslinger SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Wilhelmshaven | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Spelle-Venhaus | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Borussia Hildesheim | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Nordhorn | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 11 | Verden 04 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.