· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Schwaz vs Kitzbühel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Schwaz and 2.13 for Kitzbühel, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Kitzbühel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kitzbühel win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schwaz home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitzbühel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 21% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Schwaz and 2.13 for Kitzbühel, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
Schwaz
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Swarovski Tirol II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SVG Reichenau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dornbirn · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rheindorf Altach II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
Kitzbühel
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohenems · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Imst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaz · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 3-1 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - West)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 0-2 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 2-1 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-05-28T17:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 0-2 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - West)
- 2024-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 3-0 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - West)
- 2022-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · Schwaz 0-4 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - Tirol)
- 2022-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 3-1 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - Tirol)
- 2022-04-01T17:30:00.000Z · Schwaz 0-2 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - Tirol)
- 2021-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · Schwaz 1-0 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - Tirol)
- 2020-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Schwaz 0-2 Kitzbühel (Regionalliga - Tirol)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Imst | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Schwaz | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Swarovski Tirol II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | SK St. Johann | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Röthis | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Lochau | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Lauterach | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -19 | 7 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kitzbühel win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.