Jean Vanier Field · Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
Scrosoppi vs North Toronto Nitros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.82 expected goals for Scrosoppi and 1.08 for North Toronto Nitros, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives Scrosoppi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Scrosoppi win
84.8% probability
Expected goals
3.82 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Scrosoppi home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
North Toronto Nitros away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Scrosoppi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 9% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.82 goals for Scrosoppi and 1.08 for North Toronto Nitros, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–17.1%
- 3–06.9%
- 4–06.6%
- 2–15.9%
Recent form
Scrosoppi
- 2025-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs North Toronto Nitros · 8-0 (W)
- 2025-08-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Woodbridge Strikers · 4-3 (W)
- 2025-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs North Toronto Nitros · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Blue Devils · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-07-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Catharines Wolves · 2-2 (D)
North Toronto Nitros
- 2025-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Scrosoppi · 0-8 (L)
- 2025-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vaughan Azzurri · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Scrosoppi · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Burlington · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-07-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Burlington · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League 1 Ontario table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woodbridge Strikers | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 43 |
| 2 | Scrosoppi | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | Alliance United | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Simcoe County Rovers | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Vaughan Azzurri | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Blue Devils | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 29 |
| 7 | St. Catharines Wolves | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 28 |
| 8 | Sigma | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -9 | 24 |
| 9 | Burlington | 20 | 8 | 0 | 12 | -9 | 24 |
| 10 | North Toronto Nitros | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | -27 | 17 |
| 11 | FC London | 20 | 2 | 2 | 16 | -34 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Scrosoppi win, at 84.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.