Attis Arena · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.21 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Scunthorpe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Scunthorpe home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hartlepool away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 44.9% vs market 40.3%, edge +4.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +4.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.9% | 3.34 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.8% | 1.34 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.4% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.9% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 55.1% | 1.81 | -4.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Scunthorpe
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartlepool · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Boreham Wood · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 2-1 (W)
Hartlepool
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 4-1 Hartlepool (National League)
- 2026-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 0-0 Hartlepool (National League)
- 2025-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 2-1 Hartlepool (National League)
- 2024-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 1-2 Hartlepool (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 1-1 Hartlepool (League Two)
- 2021-12-11T15:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 0-0 Hartlepool (League Two)
- 2014-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 0-0 Hartlepool (League Two)
- 2013-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 1-0 Hartlepool (League Two)
- 2013-02-23T15:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 1-2 Hartlepool (League One)
- 2012-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Scunthorpe 0-2 Hartlepool (League One)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.