Attis Arena · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Scunthorpe vs Stoke City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.79 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.08 for Stoke City U21, a combined total of 4.87. That distribution gives Scunthorpe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Scunthorpe win
84.5% probability
Expected goals
3.79 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Scunthorpe home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stoke City U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Scunthorpe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 9% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.79 goals for Scunthorpe and 1.08 for Stoke City U21, a combined 4.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–17.1%
- 3–06.9%
- 4–06.6%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Scunthorpe
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby County U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barrow · 0-3 (L)
Stoke City U21
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordsjælland U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 | FC Halifax Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Truro City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | West Ham United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Wealdstone | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Tamworth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Woking | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Aldershot Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Braintree | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Norwich City U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Derby County U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 21 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 22 | Southampton U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | Newcastle United U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Leeds United U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Gateshead | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 28 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Worthing | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Boston United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Stoke City U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 32 | Hartlepool | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Scunthorpe win, at 84.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.