Estadio Las Gaunas · Analysis updated 16:25 UTC
SD Logroñés vs Real Zaragoza II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for SD Logroñés and 1.41 for Real Zaragoza II, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives SD Logroñés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SD Logroñés home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Zaragoza II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
SD Logroñés
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
Real Zaragoza II
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CDJ Tamarite · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · SD Logroñés 1-0 Real Zaragoza II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · SD Logroñés 1-0 Real Zaragoza II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-03-09T11:00:00.000Z · SD Logroñés 2-1 Real Zaragoza II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-10-27T15:00:00.000Z · SD Logroñés 1-1 Real Zaragoza II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2022-07-27T17:30:00.000Z · SD Logroñés 3-0 Real Zaragoza II (Friendlies Clubs)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Olot | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Ebro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Espanyol II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | Manresa | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Girona II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Tudelano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Peña Sport | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Barbastro | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Utebo | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Reddis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | UD Logroñés II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Calamocha | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | SD Logroñés | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 2 |
| 17 | Náxara | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.