SD Raiders vs Marconi Stallions Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for SD Raiders and 1.63 for Marconi Stallions, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Marconi Stallions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Marconi Stallions win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SD Raiders home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marconi Stallions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 25% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for SD Raiders and 1.63 for Marconi Stallions, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

SD Raiders win21%

Draw25%

Marconi Stallions win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–112.7%
1–111.7%
0–210.3%
1–29.5%
0–07.8%

Recent form

SD Raiders

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T07:30:00.000Z · A vs NWS Spirit · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z · A vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Macarthur · 1-1 (D)

Marconi Stallions

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Olympic · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Manly United · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · H vs St George City FA · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · SD Raiders 2-1 Marconi Stallions (New South Wales NPL)
2026-04-11T09:00:00.000Z · SD Raiders 1-6 Marconi Stallions (New South Wales NPL)

New South Wales NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	APIA Leichhardt Tigers	30	21	5	4	31	68
2	Sydney United	30	20	4	6	27	64
3	Marconi Stallions	30	19	5	6	28	62
4	Sutherland Sharks	30	14	4	12	8	46
5	Manly United	30	12	8	10	4	44
6	Rockdale City Suns	30	13	4	13	6	43
7	NWS Spirit	30	12	5	13	-1	41
8	SD Raiders	30	12	5	13	-5	41
9	Sydney FC U23	30	11	8	11	-5	41
10	Western Sydney Wanderers U23	30	11	5	14	6	38
11	Wollongong Wolves	30	11	5	14	-8	38
12	St George City FA	30	10	7	13	-16	37
13	Blacktown City	30	8	8	14	-7	32
14	UNSW	30	9	5	16	-11	32
15	St. George Saints	30	8	3	19	-27	27
16	Sydney Olympic	30	6	5	19	-30	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Marconi Stallions win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.