· Analysis updated 07:36 UTC
SE Belford Roxo vs Serra Macaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for SE Belford Roxo and 1.25 for Serra Macaense, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives SE Belford Roxo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SE Belford Roxo win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SE Belford Roxo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Serra Macaense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SE Belford Roxo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for SE Belford Roxo and 1.25 for Serra Macaense, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
SE Belford Roxo
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Paraty · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Resende · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Resende · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 0-0 (D)
Serra Macaense
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Búzios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Paduano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs 7 de Abril · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Friburguense · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · SE Belford Roxo 2-0 Serra Macaense (Carioca B2)
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Serra Macaense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | SE Belford Roxo | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Santa Cruz RJ | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paduano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Campos AA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SE Belford Roxo win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.