Lumen Field · Analysis updated 01:56 UTC
Seattle Reign FC W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Seattle Reign FC W and 1.08 for Orlando Pride W, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Seattle Reign FC W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Seattle Reign FC W win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Seattle Reign FC W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orlando Pride W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Seattle Reign FC W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Seattle Reign FC W and 1.08 for Orlando Pride W, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
Seattle Reign FC W
- 2026-10-24T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T02:00:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boston Legacy W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:50:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 1-2 (L)
Orlando Pride W
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dash W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Utah Royals W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 29 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 58 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 52 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 47 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 29 | 11 | 3 | 15 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 29 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 29 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -52 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Seattle Reign FC W win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.