Seattle Sounders vs Austin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.55 for Austin, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Seattle Sounders the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Seattle Sounders home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Seattle Sounders win43%

Draw23%

Austin win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–18.8%
1–27.7%
2–26.8%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Seattle Sounders

2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 3-1 (W)

Austin

2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-15T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-20T01:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-2 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2026-07-23T01:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-3 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-21T23:00:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-2 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-29T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 2-0 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-14T00:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-0 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2024-03-03T03:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 0-0 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2023-08-31T00:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 2-1 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2023-05-18T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-2 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2022-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 3-0 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2022-03-20T20:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-1 Austin (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	-10	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	2	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	-14	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.