Lumen Field · Referee Armando Villarrea, USA · Analysis updated 18:42 UTC
Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.80 for Vancouver Whitecaps, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Vancouver Whitecaps the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vancouver Whitecaps win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Seattle Sounders home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver Whitecaps away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 3.60 | 26.0% | 27.7% | 3.61 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.55 | 60.8% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.40 | 38.5% | 39.3% | 2.54 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 50.2% | 50.8% | 1.97 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.92 | 48.7% | 49.2% | 2.03 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 59.9% | 1.67 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 40.1% | 2.49 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.28 | 72.5% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.3% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.5% | 60.7% | 1.65 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.40 | 39.2% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.3% | 23.1% | 4.33 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Seattle Sounders
- 2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 3-1 (W)
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 0-2 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-03-19T03:00:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2026-03-13T02:00:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2025-09-28T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 2-2 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-06-09T01:00:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 0-3 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-10-03T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-19T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-04-21T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 0-2 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-10-08T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 0-0 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-07-09T02:30:00.000Z · Seattle Sounders 3-2 Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 43 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vancouver Whitecaps win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.