SPA Sebaldsbrück Platz 1 · Analysis updated 20:04 UTC
Sebaldsbrück vs OSC Bremerhaven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sebaldsbrück and 2.98 for OSC Bremerhaven, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives OSC Bremerhaven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
OSC Bremerhaven win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.98
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sebaldsbrück home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
OSC Bremerhaven away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OSC Bremerhaven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 14% / 15% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Sebaldsbrück and 2.98 for OSC Bremerhaven, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.2%
- 0–36.1%
- 1–45.9%
Recent form
Sebaldsbrück
- 2026-05-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 4-9 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Leher TS · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Habenhauser FV · 0-2 (L)
OSC Bremerhaven
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eiche Horn · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemelingen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Woltmershausen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Bremen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 31 |
| 2 | Brinkumer SV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 30 |
| 3 | Blumenthaler SV | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 27 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 25 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Geestemünde | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Vatan Sport | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Leher TS | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Schwachhausen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Union Bremen | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | BTS Neustadt | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Eiche Horn | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Grohn | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 10 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen III | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Oberneuland | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -31 | 5 |
| 16 | Woltmershausen | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is OSC Bremerhaven win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.