· Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
Segesta Sisak vs NK Osijek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for Segesta Sisak and 1.03 for NK Osijek, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Segesta Sisak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Segesta Sisak win
79.0% probability
Expected goals
3.16 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Segesta Sisak home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NK Osijek away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Segesta Sisak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.16 goals for Segesta Sisak and 1.03 for NK Osijek, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 3–08.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 4–16.5%
Recent form
Segesta Sisak
- 2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Radenska Slatina · 18-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Krka · 4-1 (W)
NK Osijek
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Segesta Sisak win, at 79.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.