Sejong SA vs Jincheon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sejong SA and 1.83 for Jincheon, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Jincheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jincheon win

47.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sejong SA home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jincheon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jincheon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Sejong SA and 1.83 for Jincheon, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sejong SA win30%

Draw23%

Jincheon win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–29.2%
2–17.2%
0–17.1%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Sejong SA

2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Seosan Pioneer · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 0-5 (L)

Jincheon

2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Haman · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongchang United · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Geoje Citizen · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-11T10:00:00.000Z · Sejong SA 4-1 Jincheon (K4 League)
2026-03-28T06:00:00.000Z · Sejong SA 1-4 Jincheon (K4 League)

K4 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jinju Citizen	22	16	3	3	33	51
2	Jincheon	22	12	6	4	22	42
3	Namyangju	23	11	6	6	3	39
4	Geoje Citizen	22	11	4	7	15	37
5	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	23	11	4	8	9	37
6	Geumsan Insam	22	9	8	5	10	35
7	Jecheon Citizen	22	8	7	7	-3	31
8	Pyeongchang United	22	9	3	10	-3	30
9	Sejong SA	22	9	2	11	-14	29
10	Gijang United	22	8	2	12	-12	26
11	Haman	22	6	2	14	-15	20
12	Pyeongtaek Citizen	22	3	5	14	-21	14
13	Seosan Pioneer	22	4	2	16	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jincheon win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.