Sejong SA vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sejong SA and 2.23 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Jungnang Chorus Mustang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jungnang Chorus Mustang win

54.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sejong SA home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jungnang Chorus Mustang away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jungnang Chorus Mustang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 20% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Sejong SA and 2.23 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sejong SA win25%

Draw20%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–29.0%
1–18.1%
1–36.7%
2–26.7%
0–26.1%

Recent form

Sejong SA

2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Seosan Pioneer · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-23T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 4-5 (L)

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sejong SA · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Namyangju · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K4 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jinju Citizen	22	16	3	3	33	51
2	Jincheon	22	12	6	4	22	42
3	Namyangju	23	11	6	6	3	39
4	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	22	11	4	7	13	37
5	Geumsan Insam	22	9	8	5	10	35
6	Geoje Citizen	21	10	4	7	11	34
7	Jecheon Citizen	22	8	7	7	-3	31
8	Pyeongchang United	22	9	3	10	-3	30
9	Sejong SA	22	9	2	11	-14	29
10	Gijang United	22	8	2	12	-12	26
11	Haman	22	6	2	14	-15	20
12	Pyeongtaek Citizen	22	3	5	14	-21	14
13	Seosan Pioneer	22	4	2	16	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jungnang Chorus Mustang win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.