Bulgaria · Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 514:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 5 September 2026

· Analysis updated 01:52 UTC

Sekirovo Rakovski vs Maritsa Milevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Sekirovo Rakovski and 1.53 for Maritsa Milevo, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.

Model pick

Maritsa Milevo to Win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.64 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sekirovo Rakovski win16%
Draw26%
Maritsa Milevo win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals18%
Both teams to score37%

Correct score

  • 0–117.4%
  • 0–213.3%
  • 0–011.3%
  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–28.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Maritsa Milevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 16% / 26% / 59% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 0.64 goals for Sekirovo Rakovski and 1.53 for Maritsa Milevo, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

  • Model confidence

    Maritsa Milevo to Win is the headline pick at 59% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Sekirovo Rakovski

    Maritsa Milevo

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.