· Analysis updated 06:24 UTC
Sekirovo Rakovski vs Zagorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sekirovo Rakovski and 1.87 for Zagorets, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Sekirovo Rakovski the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sekirovo Rakovski win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sekirovo Rakovski home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zagorets away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Sekirovo Rakovski
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagorets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 5-3 (W)
Zagorets
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Krumovgrad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Milevo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · Sekirovo Rakovski 1-2 Zagorets (Third League - Southeast)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Sekirovo Rakovski 1-1 Zagorets (Third League - Southeast)
- 2025-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Sekirovo Rakovski 0-1 Zagorets (Third League - Southeast)
- 2024-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Sekirovo Rakovski 0-1 Zagorets (Third League - Southeast)
- 2024-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Sekirovo Rakovski 1-2 Zagorets (Third League - Southeast)
- 2023-11-03T12:30:00.000Z · Sekirovo Rakovski 0-5 Zagorets (Third League - Southeast)
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 36 |
| 2 | Maritsa Milevo | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 4 | Neftochimic Burgas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Sayana Haskovo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | Yambol 1915 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Rodopa Smolyan | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Gigant Saedinenie | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Sozopol | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Rozova dolina | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Dimitrovgrad | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Zagorets | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | Botev Plovdiv II | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -21 | 8 |
| 16 | Atletik Kuklen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | Levski Karlovo | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sekirovo Rakovski win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.