MBPJ Stadium · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Selangor vs Penang Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Selangor and 0.87 for Penang, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Selangor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Selangor win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penang away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selangor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Selangor and 0.87 for Penang, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Selangor
Penang
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan Red Warrior FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Melaka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Terengganu · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Selangor win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.