Selaya vs Naval Reinosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Selaya and 1.17 for Naval Reinosa, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Selaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Selaya win

52.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Selaya home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Selaya and 1.17 for Naval Reinosa, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Selaya win53%

Draw23%

Naval Reinosa win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.7%
1–09.1%
2–08.3%
1–26.3%

Recent form

Selaya

2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Albericia · 4-2 (W)

Naval Reinosa

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torina · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Velarde · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	7	6	1	0	10	19
2	Laredo	7	6	0	1	14	18
3	Bezana	7	5	1	1	6	16
4	Revilla	7	4	2	1	6	14
5	Cayón	7	4	2	1	5	14
6	Vimenor	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	Sámano	7	3	3	1	8	12
8	Torina	7	2	5	0	6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	7	3	0	4	-6	9
10	Castro	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Selaya	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Solares	7	1	3	3	-3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Guarnizo	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Escobedo	7	1	2	4	-8	5
16	Barquereño	7	1	2	4	-8	5
17	Velarde	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Selaya win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.