JÁVERK-völlurinn · Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
Selfoss vs Álftanes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.21 expected goals for Selfoss and 1.53 for Álftanes, a combined total of 4.74. That distribution gives Selfoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Selfoss win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
3.21 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Selfoss home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Álftanes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selfoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.21 goals for Selfoss and 1.53 for Álftanes, a combined 4.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.4%
- 2–16.9%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
Selfoss
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Álftanes · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Magni · 6-0 (W)
Álftanes
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalvík / Reynir · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Grotta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Kári · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-03-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Kría · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-07-16T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Ýmir · 4-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Selfoss win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.