· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Selfoss vs Álftanes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.53 expected goals for Selfoss and 1.38 for Álftanes, a combined total of 4.91. That distribution gives Selfoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Selfoss win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
3.53 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Selfoss home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Álftanes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selfoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 12% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.53 goals for Selfoss and 1.38 for Álftanes, a combined 4.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.6%
- 2–16.3%
- 3–05.4%
- 3–25.2%
Recent form
Selfoss
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Álftanes · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Magni · 6-0 (W)
Álftanes
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalvík / Reynir · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Grotta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Kári · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-03-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Kría · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-07-16T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Ýmir · 4-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Fotbolti.net Cup A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selfoss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Haukar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Álftanes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Reynir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Dalvík / Reynir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 8 | Ýmir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Selfoss win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.