· Analysis updated 06:26 UTC
Selfoss vs Ýmir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.62 expected goals for Selfoss and 1.09 for Ýmir, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Selfoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Selfoss win
82.8% probability
Expected goals
3.62 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Selfoss home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selfoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 10% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.62 goals for Selfoss and 1.09 for Ýmir, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 64%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.8%
- 3–07.1%
- 4–17.0%
- 4–06.5%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Selfoss
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Álftanes · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Magni · 6-0 (W)
Ýmir
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Fotbolti.net Cup A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selfoss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Haukar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Álftanes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Reynir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Dalvík / Reynir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 8 | Ýmir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Selfoss win, at 82.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.