Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Semen Padang and 1.72 for Persepam Madura Utd, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Persepam Madura Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Persepam Madura Utd win

54.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

0.97 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Semen Padang home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persepam Madura Utd away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persepam Madura Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Semen Padang and 1.72 for Persepam Madura Utd, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Semen Padang win21%

Draw24%

Persepam Madura Utd win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

0–111.7%
1–111.3%
0–210.0%
1–29.7%
0–06.8%

Recent form

Semen Padang

2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-15T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-7 (L)
2026-05-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-1 (L)

Persepam Madura Utd

2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Semen Padang · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Bali United	7	4	1	2	12	13
4	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Persib Bandung	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Persita	6	3	3	0	3	12
7	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
8	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Arema FC	7	2	3	2	2	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persepam Madura Utd win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.