Stadion FK Smederevo · Analysis updated 21:57 UTC
Semendrija 1924 vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Semendrija 1924 and 1.00 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Semendrija 1924 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Semendrija 1924 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Semendrija 1924 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Semendrija 1924 and 1.00 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.9%
- 2–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 58.9% vs market 44.9%, edge +14.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +14.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.1% | 66.5% | 1.50 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.0% | 36.1% | 2.77 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.4% | 30.4% | 3.29 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.6% | 69.6% | 1.44 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 33.6% | 33.5% | 2.99 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.3% | 63.9% | 1.56 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -14.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Semendrija 1924
- 2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubočica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Vozdovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Vršac · 1-0 (W)
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grafičar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Cacak · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubočica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.