Stadion FK Smederevo · Analysis updated 06:45 UTC
Semendrija 1924 vs Grafičar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Semendrija 1924 and 0.98 for Grafičar, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Semendrija 1924 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Semendrija 1924 win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Semendrija 1924 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grafičar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Semendrija 1924 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Semendrija 1924 and 0.98 for Grafičar, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Semendrija 1924
- 2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubočica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Vozdovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Vršac · 1-0 (W)
Grafičar
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalac GM · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Semendrija 1924 win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.