· Referee L. Kasalirwe · Analysis updated 19:24 UTC
Senegal U17 vs Mali U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Senegal U17 and 1.10 for Mali U17, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Senegal U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Senegal U17 win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Senegal U17 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mali U17 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Senegal U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Senegal U17 and 1.10 for Mali U17, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Senegal U17
- 2026-06-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria U17 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana U17 · 1-0 (W)
Mali U17
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania U17 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mozambique U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Angola U17 · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-11-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U17 · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Senegal U17 win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.