Senegal U20 vs Congo DR U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Senegal U20 and 1.50 for Congo DR U20, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Congo DR U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Congo DR U20 win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Senegal U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Congo DR U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Congo DR U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 26% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Senegal U20 and 1.50 for Congo DR U20, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Senegal U20 win19%

Draw26%

Congo DR U20 win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.8%
0–211.9%
1–111.9%
0–010.5%
1–28.9%

Recent form

Senegal U20

2025-05-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nigeria U20 · 0-0 (D)
2025-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Congo DR U20 · 2-0 (W)
2025-05-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana U20 · 0-1 (L)
2025-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Central African Rep. U20 · 1-1 (D)
2024-03-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Congo U20 · 2-0 (W)

Congo DR U20

2026-06-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Côte d'Ivoire U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-06-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U19 · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs China PR U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U23 · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Senegal U20 2-0 Congo DR U20 (Africa Cup of Nations U20)

Africa Cup of Nations U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt U20	4	3	0	1	3	9
2	Morocco U20	4	2	1	1	3	7
3	Burkina Faso U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
4	Cameroon U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
5	Guinea U20	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Gambia U20	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Algeria U20	4	1	1	2	-2	4
8	Libya U20	4	1	1	2	-3	4
9	Senegal U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
10	Tunisia U20	4	0	3	1	-1	3
11	Congo U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Côte d'Ivoire U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Congo DR U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Gabon U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	Liberia U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Central African Rep. U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Niger U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Nigeria U20	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Chad U20	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Mauritania U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Mali U20	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Congo DR U20 win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.