Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade · Referee A. Bouh · Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Senegal vs Gambia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Senegal and 1.64 for Gambia, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Senegal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gambia away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Senegal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Senegal and 1.64 for Gambia, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
Senegal
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethiopia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mozambique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraq · 5-0 (W)
Gambia
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Somalia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iran · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuwait · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.