· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Senegal vs Kenya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Senegal and 1.15 for Kenya, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Kenya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kenya win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kenya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kenya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 16% / 32% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Senegal and 1.15 for Kenya, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 23% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.1%
- 0–019.2%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–09.6%
Recent form
Senegal
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethiopia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mozambique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraq · 5-0 (W)
Kenya
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guinea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eritrea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lesotho · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kenya win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.