Stade Ibn-Batouta · Referee Beida Dahane, Mauritania · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Senegal vs Sudan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Senegal and 0.40 for Sudan, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Senegal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Senegal win
73.4% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sudan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Senegal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 20% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Senegal and 0.40 for Sudan, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 2–018.1%
- 3–011.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Senegal
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethiopia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mozambique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraq · 5-0 (W)
Sudan
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-01-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-12-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Burkina Faso · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-12-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeria · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-03T16:00:00.000Z · Senegal 3-1 Sudan (Africa Cup of Nations)
- 2025-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · Senegal 2-0 Sudan (World Cup - Qualification Africa)
- 2025-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Senegal 1-1 Sudan (African Nations Championship)
- 2025-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · Senegal 0-0 Sudan (African Nations Championship)
- 2025-03-22T19:00:00.000Z · Senegal 0-0 Sudan (World Cup - Qualification Africa)
- 2018-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · Senegal 1-0 Sudan (Africa Cup of Nations)
- 2018-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · Senegal 3-0 Sudan (Africa Cup of Nations)
Africa Cup of Nations table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mali | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Zambia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Botswana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gabon | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 2 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 5 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 6 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Senegal win, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.